Omar Abdullah scoffs at exit polls: Only October 8 numbers matter, rest timepass

Jammu and Kashmir’s National Conference leader Omar Abdullah expressed scepticism about the reliability of exit polls, pointing to their failures during the recent Lok Sabha elections. “I’m amazed channels are bothering with exit polls, especially after the fiasco,” he said, dismissing the media buzz around predictions of the Haryana and J&K Assembly election results.
Abdullah emphasised that he is tuning out the chatter on channels, social media, and WhatsApp, saying, “The only numbers that matter will be revealed on the 8th of October. The rest is just time pass.”
In the Lok Sabha elections 2024, at least 12 exit polls projected a landslide victory for the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). India Today-Axis My India predicted 361 to 401 seats for the NDA alliance, while News 24-Today’s Chanakya projected an even higher 400 seats. The ABP News-C Voter survey estimated 353 to 383 seats for the NDA, and Republic Bharat-P Marq suggested that the alliance would secure 359 seats.
As the Election Commission released the results on June 4, the BJP-led NDA was able to secure just 293 seats in comparison to the Congress-led INDIA bloc bagging 235 seats, proving that the exit polls are not always correct in their predictions. In contrast to their strong showings in 2014 and 2019, the BJP fell short of a simple majority this time, securing 240 seats — a loss of 63 from the 303 they held since 2019.
Exit polls, taken right after voting ends, give an early look at potential winners and expected results before the official announcements.
While the Election Commission does not allow exit polls to be conducted during the voting process, they are permitted to be published 30 minutes after the last vote has been cast.
Exit polls, conducted by survey agencies, seek to gauge public sentiment by collecting feedback from voters after each voting phase. These surveys are then used to predict potential election outcomes.
Though exit polls provide a snapshot of the political landscape and offer insight into which party may hold the majority, their reliability has been frequently questioned due to recurring inaccuracies in predictions.